The latest reports bring mixed news for people living in the desert Southwest. Recent snowstorms in the Colorado Rockies have raised the snowpack levels to 97% of normal, which sounds promising. However, experts warn that drought conditions will continue in places like Arizona, Southern Nevada, and Southern California.
According to a report released Thursday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there’s still more than a 50% chance that the drought will stick around at least until the end of June. The report covers areas including Southern Nevada, Southern California, Southern Utah, Arizona, and Southwest Colorado.
Why Snowpack Matters
Snowpack is essential because it feeds into the rivers and reservoirs that supply water to millions of people. In the Colorado River Basin, gauges show that the snow water equivalent (SWE) — a measure of how much water is stored in the snow — has climbed to 97% of the average over the past 30 years.
This is a significant improvement from March 3, when the snowpack was only at 85%, the lowest level of the year so far. The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation updates these maps daily to monitor the situation.
But before celebrating, it’s important to understand that “normal” is based on a 30-year average, and much of that time has been affected by a megadrought that began in 2000. So even when the snowpack looks normal, it might not be enough.
Drought’s Long-Term Impact
Scientists point out that the Colorado River Basin now has about 20% less water than it did 25 years ago. In fact, some experts from The Nature Conservancy predict that by 2050, the river’s flow could drop by as much as 31%.
This is troubling news for the more than 40 million people who rely on the Colorado River for their water needs. In lower basin states like Nevada, Arizona, and California, the situation is even more critical. For example, Southern Nevada gets 90% of its water from Lake Mead, the largest reservoir in the U.S.
Current Streamflow Predictions
The National Weather Service also released its 2025 National Hydrologic Assessment on Thursday. This report shows how much water is expected to flow through key rivers:
- 90% of normal flow: Colorado River near Cameo, Colorado
- 80% of normal flow: Green River at Flaming Gorge Reservoir, Utah
- 75% of normal flow: Colorado River at Lake Powell, Arizona
NOAA stated that runoff volumes will likely be below to near normal levels in the Upper Colorado River Basin and Great Basin. However, in areas like Arizona and Southern Utah, much lower runoff volumes are expected.
Why Snowpack Alone Isn’t Enough
While snowpack levels are close to normal, that doesn’t guarantee that all the water will reach rivers and reservoirs. One of the main reasons is the dry soil. Much of the water from melting snow gets soaked up by the soil before it has a chance to flow into rivers.
The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation’s detailed map shows SWE levels for regions feeding into the Colorado River:
- Upper Green: 108%
- Lower Green: 100%
- White-Yampa: 100%
- Colorado Headwaters: 102%
- Gunnison: 93%
- Dirty Devil: 80%
- Lower San Juan: 69%
- Dolores: 90%
- Upper San Juan: 75%
These totals, as of March 20, show that some areas are in better shape than others. But experts still worry that it’s not enough to break the drought.
More Snow on the Way?
The good news is that more snow is expected Friday night through Sunday morning, especially west of Rocky Mountain National Park. This area falls in the Colorado Headwaters region, where snowpack is already at 102%.
Typically, early April marks the peak snowpack period. After that, rising temperatures mean more snow melts than accumulates, feeding water into the rivers.
What’s Next for the Southwest?
Even with these positive snowpack numbers, drought conditions are expected to continue in Arizona, Nevada, and neighboring states through at least June. For now, water conservation efforts remain crucial.
Communities relying on the Colorado River should prepare for another year of water shortages, despite temporary improvements. This ongoing situation serves as a reminder that long-term solutions are necessary to address the challenges brought by climate change and prolonged drought.
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